Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Fwd: Buy the China Breakout



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Rude Awakening <rude@agorafinancial.com>
Date: Wed, Jul 30, 2014 at 6:57 AM
Subject: Buy the China Breakout
To: iammejtm@gmail.com


Are you watching the wrong stocks?
Rude Awakening
July 30, 2014
 
 
Buy the China Breakout
 
  • Are you watching the wrong stocks?
  • A new speculative frenzy in the making
  • Plus: A better-than-average mailbag...

 
Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...

Greg Guenthner
Greg Guenthner
If the back-and-forth action in the markets has you banging your head against the wall these days, maybe you're concentrating on the wrong stocks...

While the market churns near its highs and investors continue to fret over the makings of a possible correction, Asian stocks listed on U.S. exchanges are catching fire. Japanese markets are at 6-month highs. And Nasdaq data show a basket of Asian ADRs advancing to new 52-week highs.

Today, I want you to concentrate on China. Specifically, those much-maligned Chinese stocks that trade (sometimes erratically) here in the U.S. I see signs that the market is building up for a new speculative frenzy for beaten-down Chinese names. If you pay attention and hop onboard at the right time, you have the chance to score more than one massive trade before the end of summer.

First, let's take a look at the breakout. After enduring a sideways trading range since the financial crisis, Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are finally catching a bid. This group of stocks has been coiling for nearly six years--and they're nowhere near their highs posted back in 2007...


Some of the biggest, most recognizable Chinese stocks are leading the way higher. Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU), usually referred to as "China's Google", surged after beating earnings estimates late last week--including a 59% year-over-year gain in revenue. The stock is up nearly 20% in the past four weeks alone. And it's not the only big mover.

Chinese ADRs are ramping across the board. I counted 18 liquid Chinese stocks up by at least 2% Tuesday afternoon. Of these, five were up more than 6% by the closing bell.

While these red-hot shares span a variety of sectors and industries, I think the best possible course of action is to narrow your search to Chinese technology and internet stocks. These are the names that could get the most attention.
 
 
 
 

Unless you buy organic, there's a 99% chance this particular food is contaminated with pesticides… toxins that have been linked to birth defects, nerve damage, cancer, Parkinson's disease, autism, and diabetes.

You probably have this popular "healthy" food in your fridge right now. So before you take the next bite, I urge you to click here to learn all the details.
 
 
 
 
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Rude Numbers
Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses

 
4% growth in GDP was just reported for the second quarter. Revised figures show the economy contracted less that initially though in the first quarter, slumping 2.1%, as opposed to previously reported 2.9%...
$70 million will be paid out by the NCAA for student athletes who suffered head injuries during NCAA-sanctioned competition, according to Bloomberg.
$1,300 is where you'll find gold futures this morning. After yesterday's small drop, gold is once again is pulled toward the round number...
$3.79 is the price of natural gas this morning. Natty looks like it might continue its summer slump today after a brief break...
1,972 marks the spot for S&P futures before the morning bell. Stocks are set for a green open after a positive GDP report...
 
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Rude Trends
When to Buy... When to Sell

 
All this talk of "average intelligence" has opened up a can of worms in the ol' Rude mailbag...

"I must disagree with the Mensan who wrote in recently," writes a highly sophisticated reader." Assuming that 50% of your readers are below average would be making the wild and inaccurate assumption that Agora readers mirror the general public. I submit that you attract the cream of the crop!"

Agreed. I also consider myself a better-than-average driver. Who's with me?

"Of course, you don't mean 'below average' but rather 'below the mean," comments a retired statistician. "But that's just a small point. The real faux pas is that the statement is really not correct at all. 'Your readers' are not representative of all people in the world with an IQ.

"Rather, 'your readers' are a subset of the world's people, who are interested in making money, the markets, getting advice from financial 'experts,' etc. And it is likely that only 10% to 20% of your readers are below average, perhaps even less. Which has little to do with how "smart" they are. Or how well they will do in the markets."

Spot on.

Serious question: Do they even give IQ tests anymore?

But wait, there's more:

"I would disagree that half of your readers are below average," chimes in a third reader. "The average person would generally not be reading your post."

Maybe the average person should be reading this letter. Force all of your average friends and relatives to subscribe at once!

Back to the markets...

"Hey, one of these 'years' Greg," a reader taunts regarding my correction warnings, "you'll get it right..."

Maybe. Maybe not.

But then again, it's not about getting it right. That's why I'm not shorting the market right now--I don't have a sell signal yet. Just warning signs. In the meantime, I'll ride the bull as far as it will take me. I suggest you do the same...

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
 
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Ignore At Your Own Peril
Today's Must Read Links

 
 
 
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We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security they personally recommend to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

 



--
Jeremy Tobias Matthews

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