Fwd: How a Lame Duck President Can Juice the Market

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Rude Awakening <rude@agorafinancial.com>
Date: Wed, Aug 13, 2014 at 6:46 AM
Subject: How a Lame Duck President Can Juice the Market
To: iammejtm@gmail.com

Waiting for a year-end rally August 13, 2014     How a Lame Duck President Can Juice the Market   Waiting for a year-end rally Market cycles point to additional gains Plus: Time to buy the bounce?   Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD... Greg Guenthner You've survived the crash-calls and at least one family vacation this summer. But have you made any money in the stock market lately? If not, pay close attention. A powerful rally could give you the perfect opportunity to book some gains--if you know when to look for it... Compared to last year, stocks haven't exactly wowed investors in 2014. After a couple of false starts, the S&P 500 is up a little less than 5% this year. By mid-August 2013, the S&P had already clocked gains of more than 18%. But that could soon change over the next few months. If you look at some market cycle data, you'll see that a big end-of-year rally could materialize this fall. But first, we need to figure out how the stock market typically winds its way through the year. So what the heck does an "average" year for stocks look like? "The average year gains about 9% and tends to start strong, chop around during the summer, and bottom in late October before a strong year-end rally," explains market technician Ryan Detrick. Ryan had compiled all sorts of market cycle data. This time, he's taking a slightly different approach when it comes to looking at the presidential cycle. Typically, analysts will look at the 4-year presidential cycle for guidance. This being the second year of the presidential cycle means we should expect a weak market that spends most of the year in the red, then posting a sharp rally at the end of the year. But this time around, we're dealing with a lame duck president about to enter his last couple of years in office. So how does this affect the cycle? As it turns out, it could lead to some very strong gains if stocks begin to catch up to the average sixth year of a two-term presidential cycle... You can clearly see from the chart that year six is an absolute monster heading into the fourth quarter. Even if the market lags behind the average gains, we'll still see a very strong year for stocks when all is said and done. "Time and time again last year I'd overlay what happened in 1954 and 1995, and said 2013 could see a huge second half rally as they were all nearly identical," Detrick explains. "It is tough to remember, but this time a year ago many were chanting for an '87-like crash, not a huge end of year rally. History might not repeat, but it does rhyme. To me, the odds favor we finish higher than where we are right now and there's a good chance for a strong year-end rally."         Exclusive: "Second Snowden" Is Only the Beginning Urgent: This presentation expires at midnight on 8/13   U.S. officials confirmed shocking news this week…   A "Second Snowden" is on the loose and feeding classified information to the public. But that's not the most shocking part. While national security officials are scrambling to find the new mole… they're completely overlooking a completely different "whistle-blower" with juicy secrets to share.   Luckily, we were able to get the full story before the officials caught on to this third mole.   Click here for instant access before it's too late.           Rude Numbers Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses   $2 billion was lost by the U.S. Postal Service during the second quarter, compared to a $740 million loss during the same quarter in 2013... 63% of all stocks trading on major U.S. exchanges are now below their respective 50-day moving averages... $3.91 is the price of natural gas this morning. Natty is currently posting its biggest one-day loss since mid-July... $1,313 is where you'll find gold futures this morning. The yellow stuff is stabilizing above $1,300 nicely... 1,937 marks the spot for S&P futures just before the bell. Stocks are looking at a strong open halfway through the trading week...     Rude Trends When to Buy... When to Sell   "Buy This Bounce in the S&P 500," my trading buddy Jonas Elmerraji exclaims. This week's early gains have Jonas asking an important question. Is the market pullback finished? "We're at a pretty interesting spot to be an investor," he explains. "First off, we're very close to the same trendline support level that's provided an extremely low-risk/high-reward spot to be a buyer. Every bounce off of that support level for the last two years has been a great time to be a buyer." Also, Jonas notes that upside momentum started perking ahead of time... "Typically, that means that price action is likely to follow suit," Jonas concludes. "What we haven't seen is the panic that's been associated with past corrections. I'd love to see a little bit more fear and a little less ennui among investors. But I won't dare argue with price action; at this point, this looks like a bounce. That should come with some much more constructive price action for the rest of this month." August is a tough month for trading. Volume is typically lower and false moves higher (and lower) can make your head spin. Don't get too worried about the day-to-day market fluctuations. Instead, concentrate on the bigger trends. The summer doldrums are over. In just a few more weeks, we'll get a chance to see how the market might set up for fall trading--and a potentially powerful fourth quarter... [Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]     Ignore At Your Own Peril Today's Must Read Links   How to Become Your Own "Banker" [must see] Oil-Industry Veteran Reveals 6 Plays to Get Rich Fast A Little-Known IPO Hint: How to Get In Before Stocks Go Public!     BE SURE TO ADD dr@dailyreckoning.com to your address book.       Additional Articles & Commentary: Join the conversation! Follow us on social media:         The Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Agora Financial delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Rude Awakening, click here. Please read our Privacy Statement. For any further comments or concerns please email us at rude@agorafinancial.com. If you are you having trouble receiving your Rude Awakening subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by whitelisting The Rude Awakening. © 2014 Agora Financial, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security they personally recommend to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

--
Jeremy Tobias Matthews